DA’s grip on Western Cape likely to weaken

• Proliferation of small parties expected to lead to up to 10% drop in support

The firm grip the DA has on most Western Cape municipalities is likely to be eroded in the local government elections, with votes cast in its favour possibly declining by as much as 10% in the province. In the 2016 local government elections, the DA won 63.3% of the provincial vote, but with inroads made by smaller parties and a low voter turnout — a key factor for the party — this percentage could fall to as low as 52% in the election on November 1.

The firm grip the DA has over most Western Cape municipalities is likely to be eroded in the forthcoming local government elections, with votes cast in its favour possibly declining by as much as 10% in the province.

Its dominance of the prized Cape Town metropole is also in question.

In the 2016 local government elections, the DA won 67% of the Cape Town vote and 63.3% of the provincial vote, claiming control of 17 of the 30 municipalities, including Cape Town.

By winning by-elections it now controls 21 councils, one of which is a coalition.

With inroads made by smaller parties and a low voter turnout — a key factor for the party — this percentage could fall to as low as 52% in the election on November 1.

The main reason for the likely erosion of the DA’s support base is the proliferation of smaller parties, some of which are locally based and might not garner enough votes to take over municipal councils, but will get enough to be included in coalition governments in some municipalities.

It will create a “messy” sphere of local government in the province, says political analyst Daniel Silke.

“The bigger parties are going to have a rough ride,” he said.

“There is a certain alienation on the part of the electorate for the larger political parties, particularly the ANC and to some degree the DA as well.

“Voters might be prepared to shift some of their allegiances to the plethora of smaller political parties and I think we will see a shift away from the bigger parties. This makes for a more unpredictable, more diffuse and a more open election than we have had in recent times.”

Silke expects the DA to hold on to Cape Town.

HUGE RISK

DA Western Cape provincial chair Jaco Londt said that unstable coalition governments in the province, due to a switch in allegiances by smaller parties to create new coalitions, is a “huge risk for stable governments, which is crucial for good governance”.

Many of the nine coalition governments outside the DA in the Western Cape are between smaller parties and the ANC.

DA mayoral candidate for Cape Town Geordin Hill-Lewis said none of the smaller parties alone posed a threat to the DA, but if, for example, they each took 2% of the votes, it would amount to a sizeable inroad into its support base.

“This is a concern,” Hill-Lewis said, pointing in particular to the Patriotic Alliance.

The danger is that where no party wins an outright majority, the smaller parties will be kingmakers in unstable coalition local councils.

This is what Gayton McKenzie, leader of the “unashamedly coloured nationalist” Patriotic Alliance, forecasts will be the role of his party.

The Patriotic Alliance, which was established in 2013, won less than 1% of the Western Cape votes in the 2016 election, capturing one seat on the Cape metro.

A key pillar of the party’s campaign is for local jobs to be kept for local people and for illegal foreigners to be jailed or deported.

“We will bring the DA below 50%,” McKenzie predicted, saying the DA has neglected the coloured community — the largest in the province — in terms of service delivery after winning their vote.

The Patriotic Alliance will be contesting in all municipalities in the province, he said.

NOT TESTED

Another newcomer is the Good party, which was founded in December 2018 and has not been tested in a local government election except in by-elections.

It won less than 1% of the vote in the 2019 national election, but this was shortly after its formation and is no indication of its local support in the Western Cape.

Brett Herron, Good mayoral candidate for Cape Town and the party’s secretary-general, said his party will be contesting every ward in all 30 municipalities in the province.

Herron is confident the party will win some, be a kingmaker in others or participate in coalition governments. He noted

IT WILL CREATE A MESSY SPHERE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN THE PROVINCE. THE BIGGER PARTIES ARE GOING TO HAVE A ROUGH RIDE

that Good has won several byelections in wards since 2016.

The Freedom Front Plus, which won few votes in 2016 but made strong advances in the 2019 national election, could also strengthen its position in the Western Cape.

Inroads might be made into African communities by the EFF, which won 2.8% of the votes in the province and 3.2% in Cape Town in 2016, though the ANC’s election campaign head, Cameron Dugmore, believes the ANC will hold on to its core support base in African communities. Dugmore says that the “Ramaphosa factor ”— the renewal of the ANC after President Cyril Ramaphosa took over — has energised supporters.

The ANC won 26.2% of the vote in 2016 and did not win outright control of any municipalities in the province.