ANC and DA’s own polls point to erosion of support

The ANC and DA, SA’s two leading political parties, are struggling to win back voters ahead of the local elections due in about six weeks, with their internal polls hinting they are likely to lose support.

Although the poll results are not publicly available, Business Day has had access to them. They show that both parties are under threat, especially in areas they govern. The parties’ own polls have traditionally turned out to be the most accurate predictor of support.

The results indicate that the ANC has not done enough to claw back support in the City of Johannesburg after it lost the metro in 2016 as disillusionment with the scandals of the second Jacob Zuma term caused its supporters to stay at home.

The build-up to the November 1 election has been marred by infighting and organisational chaos, which resulted in the ANC failing to register candidates on time in dozens of municipalities.

However, the party was

given a lifeline by the Electoral Commission of SA’s decision to reopen the process.

“In 2016 the ANC did not want to believe the polling. The situation looks just as bleak this year,” a Luthuli House staff member said.

The party was kicked out of office by voters in Tshwane after violent riots in 2016 over the imposition of candidates.

Deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte said this time the party’s preferred candidates are rooted in communities.

“There is a great number of people who have not been retained. We went to communities and asked them to participate in the selection process of our candidates,” Duarte said.

Despite this assurance, hundreds of party supporters protested at the party’s head office, Luthuli House, on Wednesday, claiming their candidates had been overlooked to pave the way for those they hardly know.

In 2016, the ANC lost support in all eight metros, with the biggest decrease in Johannesburg, where its share fell by 14 percentage points. It had doubledigit losses in Ekurhuleni and Buffalo City in the Eastern Cape, and the party’s polling indicates it hasn’t reversed that trend.

The DA, which won Cape Town with a 60% share of the vote in 2016, is set to retain the city, though the race may be a lot tighter this year. Two polls it has conducted suggest it may make it over the line with 53%. The party could lose up to 12% support in Joburg and Tshwane, based on data recorded in April.

The DA has in recent years failed to capitalise on the ANC’s divisions and corruption scandals, having been embroiled in internal conflict that saw the departure of high-profile black leaders such as former Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille, former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba, and former Gauteng leader John Moodey.

“In metros a decline is expected, but in small towns all over the country, the DA numbers have spiked,” a DA staff member said.

DA leader John Steenhuisen sees a political opportunity from the violence that broke out in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng after the arrest of Zuma. “The ANC has found itself in a perfect storm. Of course we want elections to happen soon. Why give your opponent time to sort out their own chaos,” he said.

He added that the “only poll that matters is the one that matters on election day. Many people have made the mistake and written the DA off”.

An Ipsos survey conducted from August 16 to 20 showed the ANC’s support dwindling among eligible voters at just 34.9%. Among registered voters, the picture more closely resembles past performance, with the ANC’s support at 49.3%, the DA at 17.9% and the EFF at 14.5%.

Former DA leader Mmusi Maimane said he was throwing his support behind independent candidates.

“The notion of political parties is dying a slow death,” Maimane said. “Members of parliament have not provided leadership; leadership came from outside the political system. Which means people are looking for leadership outside the political structure,” he said.

49.3% support for the ANC by registered voters, according to Ipsos

53% support for the DA in Cape Town, two of its polls show